However, there is no well-established way of estimating a single probability distribution function from individual results taking account of the different assumptions in each study.
The authors based their work on the hypothesis of learning which states that "people look at the time series of previous instances (samples) of exogenous shocks and estimate the probability distribution function of shocks using the same methods as econometricians do based on the time series."
The authors' hypothesis is that "people do not know in advance the true probability distribution function of exogenous shocks." Although this loosens the rational expectations hypothesis, it is a very realistic hypothesis.
In a model where the probability distribution function is revised based on such learning, a permanent mark is left in the probability distribution function where such experience is presumed.
在通过这样的学习不断更新概率分布函数的模型中,一次经验推算的概率分布函数会留下永久性的痕迹。
Based on this hypothesis, even if a financial crisis arises, it is a shock that occurs based on a known probability distribution function, so the expectations (shock probability distribution function) held by people after the crisis dissipates will be exactly the same as that before the crisis.
This technique forms an image of the estimate which is created by plotting the frequency of numerous samples on a graph and connecting these points in a smooth curve resembling the pattern of a probability distribution function.
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Synonyms and analogies of "probability distribution function" in English